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Stochastic process -- Markov chain
2022-06-23 19:33:00 【Jokic_ Rn】
Markov The process
The present state is known , The future state has nothing to do with the past state .
P ( X ( t n + 1 ) ≤ x n + 1 ∣ X ( t 1 ) = x 1 , . . . , X ( t n ) = x n ) = P ( X ( t n + 1 ) ≤ x n + 1 ∣ X ( t n ) = x n ) P(X(t_{n+1})≤x_{n+1}|X(t_1)=x_1,...,X(t_n)=x_n) = P(X(t_{n+1})≤x_{n+1}|X(t_n)=x_n) P(X(tn+1)≤xn+1∣X(t1)=x1,...,X(tn)=xn)=P(X(tn+1)≤xn+1∣X(tn)=xn)
State transition matrix
If the state transition probability is independent of a certain state , Call this process homogeneous Markov The process .
p i j = P ( X n + k = j ∣ X n = i ) p_{ij} = P(X_{n+k}=j|X_n=i) pij=P(Xn+k=j∣Xn=i)
i It's the current state ,j Is the next status
In matrix form
P ( k ) = [ p 11 ( k ) p 12 ( k ) . . . p 1 n ( k ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . p n 1 ( k ) . . . . . . p n n ( k ) ] P(k) = \begin{bmatrix} p_{11}(k) & p_{12}(k) & ... & p_{1n}(k) \\ ... & ... & ...&...\\ ... & ...& ... & ...\\ p_{n1}(k) & ... & ... & p_{nn}(k) \end{bmatrix} P(k)=⎣⎢⎢⎡p11(k)......pn1(k)p12(k).....................p1n(k)......pnn(k)⎦⎥⎥⎤
C-K equation
p i j = ∑ r p i r ( k ) p r j ( l ) p_{ij} = \sum_rp_{ir}(k)p_{rj}(l) pij=r∑pir(k)prj(l)
In the form of a matrix
P ( k + l ) = P ( k ) P ( l ) = [ P ( 1 ) ] k + l P(k+l) = P(k)P(l) = [P(1)]^{k+l} P(k+l)=P(k)P(l)=[P(1)]k+l
n The transition probability of each step can be determined by 1 Step transition probability acquisition
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