Tencent music, slow down?

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stay 7 In late September, Tencent music was ordered by the regulator to remove the exclusive copyright mode of online music , Netease cloud music has entered the rhythm of copyright buying , And modern sky 、 The emperor's entertainment 、 China record group and other key copyright owners have reached cooperation and advertised .

In contrast, Tencent music , After the copyright barrier is broken , Put the operation focus on music 、 The content and liquidity of the two social entertainment sectors are strengthened , And also Apple Music Reach copyright cooperation , Trying to find new “ The moat ” Build up approach .

After removing the exclusive copyright, it is sticky to the users of Tencent music 、 What will be the impact of the payment rate ？ How does the audio business perform when its strategic position is raised to the front row ？ In music short video 、 Social and entertainment today , Whether Tencent music can mobilize the ecological innovation ability , And whether Tencent can continue to maintain its leading edge by relying on its endogenous traffic ？

11 month 8 Japan , Tencent music released 2021 Third quarter results , The above questions may be able to find some answers and clues .

Revenue growth slowed down

According to the results , Tencent music 2021Q3 Online music business revenue 28.9 One hundred million yuan , Chain ratio 2021Q2 Of 29.5 Billion yuan slide 2.03%.

The decline mainly comes from the advertising and content licensing businesses ,2021Q3 income 9.9 One hundred million yuan ,2021Q2 Income for 11.6 Billion , Decline in chain ratio 14.66%. According to the earnings conference call , The management said that the advertising business was affected by the regulatory environment and performed poorly .

A number of data of member subscription business still have a certain growth month on month . First of all ,2021Q3 Income for 19 One hundred million yuan ,2021Q2 Income for 17.9 Billion , rose 6.15%; second ,2021Q3 Move MAU by 6.36 Billion ,2021Q2 by 6.23 Billion ; Third ,2021Q3 The rate of payment is 11.2%,2021Q2 The rate of payment is 10.6%.

For now , Lifting the exclusive copyright has not had a direct impact on Tencent music for the time being , On the one hand, it is because Tencent music is Q3 Member subscription Promotion , So monthly ARPPU There was also a slight decrease , On the other hand, the subscription cycle of members is often monthly 、 Quarter or year , In a short time, there is no reduction in users' willingness to pay .

Of course, if we look at it year-on-year , Some of the core data of online music is not so good-looking , Like moving MAU、 monthly ARPPU Year on year declines 1000 and 0.5 element .

On the whole , Online music in Q3 Under pressure , One is the continuing impact of changes in the regulatory environment on the advertising industry , The other is other media platforms , For example, the strong snatch of short video to user traffic . in addition , After losing the protection of copyright barriers , There is no doubt that the competitive pressure of Tencent music's member subscription service will be increasing .

Audio slow down

The beginning of the year , Tencent music has strategically strengthened the position of audio , For example, the positioning script of financial report disclosure is from “ Online music entertainment platform ” Turned into “ Online music and audio entertainment platforms ”, also QQ Music's tools and financial support for audio content .

With the blowing of the audio outlet , From this year 3 In June, the acquisition of lazy people listening to books was completed 4 The month combines KuWo Changting and lazy listening into lazy Changting , Tencent music to audio business （ All the people K Songs and lazy people listen ） My expectations are high , On the one hand, it is hoped that audio will strengthen the activity and competitiveness of the entire content ecology , The other side hopes that audio will become a new growth force in the future .

from 2021Q3 Let's see the financial report , The performance of a few audio data is acceptable , One is long audio MAU Has more than 1.4 Billion , At the end of last year 1 Million or so ; Second, the number of long audio paying users reached 500 ten thousand , Year-on-year growth exceeds 1 times , But the payment rate is less than 3.6%.

But from the payment rate 、 income 、MAU Wait for the data to decline month on month , The audiolization of social entertainment business is still not ideal . First of all ,2021Q3 The payment rate of social entertainment business is 4.9%, and 2021Q2 by 5.3%; second ,2021Q3 Social entertainment mobile MAU by 2.05 Billion ,2021Q2 by 2.09 Billion ; Third ,2021Q3 Income from social entertainment and other businesses is 49.2 Billion ,2021Q2 by 50.6 Billion .

Another key point is , The management mentioned in the earnings conference call that Changyin audio is still a contributor to negative gross profit margin this year , This means that the liquidity of the long audio business is still very weak , Can't cover the cost of revenue based on content . Although the Himalayas 、 Litchi and others have been trapped by losses , But at least the gross profit is positive .

The audio strategy is not ideal for several reasons , One is that the main mode of audio realization is virtual gift reward , The low payment rate is a challenge faced by most platforms , The other is the audio live broadcast now 、 The audio social track is very competitive .

in addition , The current audio strategy of Tencent music needs more internal running in , One is the integration of original products and purchased products , The first is the emphasis on audio content of the three platforms , To avoid excessive internal friction .

The speed of getting customers slows down

Online music and social entertainment products mobile MAU Reasons for unfavorable growth , It may be partly due to the convergence of Tencent music's buying model . According to the results ,2021Q3 Tencent music sales and marketing expenses are 5.87 Billion , Year-on-year decline in 8.57%, fell 12.26%.

The reason for the year-on-year decline , The explanation given by Tencent music in the financial report is “ Effectively attract more users through internal organic traffic to reduce the cost of getting customers , This improves operational efficiency .”

The management also mentioned in the conference call that more internal resources are being used to obtain customers , So as to reduce various costs and expenses for external customer acquisition channels , And this cost and expense control strategy will continue .

Tencent music's customer investment has obviously converged , On the one hand, Tencent music may pay more attention to growth quality in its development strategy , Not growth data , On the other hand, it may be necessary to maintain operating profit and operating profit margin . Results show that ,2021Q3 The operating profit of Tencent music is 9.19 Billion , Decline in chain ratio 11.63%, fell 27.06%, Obvious decline .

The reason why Tencent music can adopt such an endogenous driving mode , It is mainly because there is a gap between the traffic of the three internal platforms , Self sufficiency can reduce the competitive friction between internally homogeneous products , Enhance the balance and unity of development .

But from MAU According to the change of data , The endogenous driving mechanism may not be a good long-term growth strategy for Tencent music , Because limited internal resources mean limited room for growth , At a certain level , Absorb the external flow to expand the ecology and improve the realization space , It will still be the only choice for Tencent to invest in music .

Internal pressure + External pressure ： Hold on

The third quarter is the most important inflection point for Tencent's music development , Because the copyright barrier that we used to be proud of is gone , In this copyright competition , Netease cloud music will pose a growing threat to Tencent music .

Interestingly , Netease cloud music and Tencent music were both going to be launched this year , The former will be listed in Hong Kong stock market for the first time , The latter should return to Hong Kong stock market , However, they have been delayed after the introduction of regulatory policies . The abacus of Netease cloud music is obviously waiting for more popular copyrights to bring greater valuation stimulation to the capital market , Tencent music is obviously worried about the gradual collapse of copyright barriers , The downward shift of self valuation expectation will make the capital market less optimistic .

When the copyright gap between the two continues to narrow , Netease cloud music, backed by Alibaba and Netease, will become the biggest external pressure of Tencent music . As for internal pressure , More from Tencent music's collation and coordination of internal Ecology .

Since Tencent music gathered three platforms , The outside world has never stopped questioning whether Tencent music can effectively solve the problem of internal friction . This year, 5 Since the month , Tencent music has made a series of personnel and organizational structure adjustments , Multiple core business lines are involved , Some people think that Tencent music is making up its mind to solve the problem of internal friction .

The internal competition of Tencent music ecology is very significant , The core is the homogenization of products , image QQ music 、 KuWo and kugou , Both have online music and live broadcasting services , When attracting the same user , Tencent music theoretically needs to show three services .

And it's worth noting , From the past development , The mode of multi product cooperative operation is not completely successful , Or let Netease cloud music break through . And now , Slower and slower revenue growth , And the performance of some core data is not ideal , Obviously, Tencent music has to think about the reliability of the multi product combat mode , The future is complete “ Three in one ” Probably the best choice .

No matter what you think , Tencent music currently has obvious internal pressure and external pressure , And with the dynamic change of industry flow and the emergence of critical point of competition , How to bear the internal pressure 、 External pressure , It will be the next problem to be solved by Tencent music .

Liu Kuang's official account ,ID：liukuang110