The advanced process resistance of Intel and TSMC is increasing, and Chinese chips are expected to shorten the gap

TSMC's advanced process R & D roadmap shows , In progress 3nm After mass production , The following two years will continue to 5nm and 3nm Make improvements , The reason lies in 2nm The mass production of the process must be at least 2025 Annual commissioning , This action is related to Intel The technology research and development of squeezing toothpaste has the same effect .

TSMC said that it was in mass production this year 3nm Process at the same time , It will also launch N4P process , Next year we will be right again 4nm The process is improved and introduced N4X process , To 2025 The improved version of N3E、N3P、N3X process .

TSMC's practice and practice in process research and development Intel The research and development of advanced technology in those years are quite similar .Intel stay 2014 In mass production 14nm After the craft , Has been stagnant ,10nm The process goes all the way to 2019 It's only mass production in 2000 , During that time Intel I have to keep on talking about 14nm Improve until 14nm+++, It is derided by the industry as squeezing toothpaste ;2019 In mass production 10nm The process has been continuously improved , Until the second half of this year 7nm（Intel Name it Intel 4 process ）.

Intel stay Intel 4 After the craft 、 TSMC is in 3nm After the craft , Their 2nm Level process is expected to 2025 We can produce in volume in , However, there are still questions about whether mass production can be carried out as scheduled . TSMC 3nm The process was expected to be mass produced last year , Then it will be postponed to the second half of this year , Now we can't contract for Apple as scheduled A16 processor , signify 3nm The process has been delayed again , such 2nm Whether the process can be mass produced on schedule is even more doubtful .

Intel Of 10nm、7nm Have been delayed in mass production , The industry has more reason to doubt its Intel 20、Intel 18A Whether the process can be completed as scheduled 2025 It's mass production in . As a result, Chinese chips have shortened the time in advanced technology compared with TSMC and Intel There is hope for the gap .

China's chip manufacturing has reached 14nm, Currently advancing 7nm Mass production of Technology , SMIC, China's largest chip manufacturing enterprise, has made full preparations for this , It was developed N+1、N+2 Technology is to reserve technology for advanced technology , Once the key equipment is obtained --EUV lithography , that 7nm And the mass production of more advanced technology will be quickly put on the agenda .

ASML It has not been able to supply China for well-known reasons EUV lithography , However, the global chip market has been oversupplied , The pace of chip capacity expansion will therefore stagnate ,ASML The performance in the first quarter of this year also fell sharply , It shows that the shipment of lithography machine has decreased significantly .

China is in many economies because of the huge demand of its own manufacturing industry , Chip capacity expansion is likely to continue steadily , The Chinese market is right ASML The importance of ,2021 China has been ASML Our number one customer , If the lithography market shrinks significantly next, it will lead to ASML Our survival has become a problem , that ASML For the sale to China EUV The attitude of the lithography machine may be loose .

The present Intel And TSMC 2nm Level process is delayed to at least 3 Years later, , These years may become an important opportunity for Chinese chips to catch up with them in advanced technology , Maybe in a few years China will break through 5nm Level , So as to break through the second camp of chip OEM , Both liandian and lattice core of the second camp of chip foundry have decided to give up 7nm Process development and stop at 14nm.

Current chips are all silicon-based chips , The limit of silicon-based chips is 1nm, The physical limit is TSMC and Intel The ceiling of the , The huge obstacles they encounter in the research and development of advanced processes are very rare opportunities for China's chip manufacturing , It is believed that Chinese chips will surely break the current difficulties , Close the gap with them .

In addition to continuing to make efforts in silicon-based chips, Chinese chips , Also preparing for new chip technology , In quantum chips 、 Carbon based chips have been laid out , Perhaps after the arrival of the new chip technology , China will take the lead completely .