The logic of "Ali health" has long changed

“ The same medicine is much more expensive offline than online , Why is it forbidden to buy or sell ？” The day before yesterday, a microblog hot search comment area , There are not a few such voices . The hot search content is ： Third party platform providers shall not directly participate in drug online sales activities . 

recently , Issued by the State Food and drug administration 《 Regulations for the implementation of the drug administration law of the people's Republic of China （ Draft for comments ）》（ hereinafter referred to as 《 Solicitation draft 》）, among , New Article 83 “ Third party platform management obligations ” The above contents are clearly specified in .

obviously , Many Weibo users take this provision literally as , Online drug online trading platform cannot participate in drug online sales activities . From this point of view , It is precisely a public opinion oolong .

More Than This , The whole thing was unexpected . As early as 5 month 9 Japan , The State Food and Drug Administration issued 《 Solicitation draft 》, But it was not until the 6 month 22 Japan , In the relevant media “ Do something about it ” Next , That triggered a heated debate .

And this inexplicable fire also burned the people in the Bureau , On the same day, the internet medical sector of Hong Kong stock market continued to fall , As of the close of trading, Ali health ended lower 13.85%, JD health ended lower 14.83%.

How to understand this sudden new rule ？ For Ali health people , What impact will the new regulations bring ？ Beyond the new regulations , On a larger level , Where will the internet medical unit go ？ This is the crux of this article .

Three interpretations of a new rule

How to correctly interpret “ Third party platform providers shall not directly participate in drug online sales activities ”？ What is strange is , This new rule misleads many spectators , In the eyes of people in the industry , There are also different understandings .

First , What is the “ direct ”, In this new regulation, there is no right to “ Directly participate in ” Define . Some analysts think , If you don't define “ Directly participate in ” Range ,“ In the future, it may become a short clause ”.

however , Or literally , That is, the third-party platform selling drugs through self-supporting pharmacies belongs to “ Directly participate in online drug sales activities ”, Then this regulation will obviously be detrimental to Ali's health .

What needs to be added is , Now Alibaba health and other medical e-commerce platforms , It can be divided into medicine B2B、B2C and O2O Three models . among , In terms of volume ,B2C It has become the most mature in pharmaceutical e-commerce 、 The most active market .

Take it a step further , At present, pharmaceutical e-commerce B2C It is divided into self-supporting type  B2C Peace desk B2C, Internet medicine e-commerce platforms generally give consideration to both , So as to improve the product supply capacity , Satisfy C Multiple demands of end users , The two complementary models have become the focus of this controversy .

Take Ali health for example , Its main business is divided into three parts , They are pharmaceutical proprietary businesses 、 Pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business and medical health and digital service business , The first two are self operated  B2C Peace desk B2C.

according to 2022 The annual report for the financial year shows , Ali health's pharmaceutical self-supporting business has realized income 179.11 One hundred million yuan , The proportion in the total revenue reaches 87%, Business income of pharmaceutical e-commerce platform 19.96 One hundred million yuan , The proportion in the total revenue reaches 9.7%, Both are always the main force of revenue .

therefore , If the third-party platform sells drugs through its own drugstores, it belongs to “ Directly participate in online drug sales activities ”, So does it mean , Ali health needs to give up the self operated business that accounts for the vast revenue ？

ad locum , Differences arise .

One view is that , It only needs “ Separation ” that will do . The third-party platform only needs to spin off its proprietary business , Establish a subject that meets relevant regulations and requirements , You can avoid the above problems , The operation will not be greatly affected .

In this way, the regulations can be followed , It can also solve the problem that the third-party platform is both a platform and self-supporting “ Be a judge and an athlete ” The situation .

actually , Alibaba health's proprietary business and third-party business are in the charge of different companies , Its proprietary business is mainly in the charge of the pharmaceutical chain Co., Ltd. of Alibaba health pharmacy .

Of course , Others believe that , It will not be under strong supervision “ Separation ”, More likely “ A choice ”, In other words, enterprises want to continue to do third-party platform business , Then we should divest our proprietary business , vice versa .

If so , Ali health needs to consider , Which business to choose as the outcast . In terms of revenue , With the implementation of the new regulations , Based on existing patterns , The business model of Alibaba health in the future may still be self-supporting , Abandon third-party business .

But if from GMV Look at , Although the revenue of the platform business is small , But it has contributed more than 70% GMV, Therefore, no matter which choice is made, it will inevitably need to hurt the muscles and bones .

Beyond the two , There is also a most optimistic view ：《 Bureau of health and knowledge 》 Think ,“ Whether it is self-supporting or platform business , All these enterprises have carried out in-depth cooperation with physical pharmacies , No third party directly participates in online drug sales .”

in other words , The platform has been unable to sell drugs directly , Only offline pharmacies can sell drugs , So this provision only serves as a supervisory role , There is no specific impact on the actual business of the pharmaceutical e-commerce platform .

In the eyes of most people in the industry , No matter how the new regulations are implemented , The valuation logic of Alibaba health will change . But there is no such new rule , The existing valuation logic of Alibaba health has also been accumulated .

Ali health people are lost

2020 A public health event in , The internet medical industry, which has always been cold, has been revitalized ,“ The epidemic has pushed the industry forward at least 5 year ”, Micro medical group CEO Liaojieyuan once lamented .

As the epidemic situation gradually eases in the world , Market expectations for the industry are declining . The most obvious performance is in the stock price , As the market and business return to normal , Take Alibaba health as the representative target , Its share price ⼀ For more than years, it has continued to fluctuate and fall .

By 2021 year 6 month 22 Closed yesterday , Alibaba health shares 4.79 The Hong Kong dollar , Market value 647.53 Million Hong Kong dollars , a 2021 year 2 month 18 Japan 30.15 The highlight of the Hong Kong dollar fell by more than 80% , The market value has also evaporated more than hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars from the peak at that time .

It can be understood as , The epidemic valuation premium obtained by the platform in the secondary market , Now all of them have returned . Suddenly , Internet medical service has ushered in a cold wave in the secondary market , Even beyond the head platform , All together 2021 The Internet that impacted the listing around ⽹ One after another, the medical companies have been silent ⽕.

In addition to being related to the general situation of the epidemic , The platform itself has responsibilities , Whether it is a giant or a small and medium-sized platform , Generally, there is no profit path , As a result, the return on investment and return cycle of the market for Internet healthcare are expected to decline .

According to Alibaba health 2022 Financial year results show , The Group recorded revenue 205.78 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 32.6%; The adjusted net loss is approximately 3.94 One hundred million yuan , The adjusted net profit of the same period last year was about 6.31 One hundred million yuan .

in other words , stay 2021 After realizing the first profit since the company went public in the fiscal year , The next year, Alibaba health did not cross the performance loss .

The specific term , The reason for Ali's health loss , This is mainly reflected in the decrease in gross profit margin during the reporting period 3.3% to 20% And high sales and marketing expenses , This is a common problem faced by almost all pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms .

Why do you say that? ? First of all, understand , Ali health 、 Jingdong health 、 The income of Ping'an and good doctors is highly dependent on the platform of pharmaceutical e-commerce , More like “ Drug seller ”, Instead of “ See a doctor ”.

From the previous revenue structure of Alibaba health , Pharmaceutical sales revenue accounts for nearly 90% , The money making model of Internet healthcare still seems to be unavoidable “ Selling medicine ” The logic of , Medical e-commerce is the foundation to support Internet Medical profits .

therefore , Essentially , The essence of pharmaceutical e-commerce is a market dominated by traffic , Only the third-party trading platform with large flow can become the head of this market .

But when competition intensifies , The expenditure on marketing of pharmaceutical e-commerce platform will cause chain effect , Intensified marketing efforts will inevitably cause the platform cost to rise , Even there is a price war between platforms in order to seize the source of customers , The final profit is affected .

As evidence , It can be seen that during the reporting period , Ali health's sales and marketing expenses increased significantly , Year-on-year growth 7.59 One hundred million yuan to 19.81 One hundred million yuan , Increase achieved 62.1%, That is, the so-called “ Mental construction ” On .

Of course , The way to break the game is “ From medicine to medicine ” The transformation of . Ali health doesn't fail to see this ,2020 year 9 month , Ali health App Officially renamed “ Medical deer ”,App The interface is more focused on medical services , This is undoubtedly a strategic transformation , But the result is not satisfactory .

according to 2022 The financial results show that , During the reporting period , The revenue of medical health and digital services business during the reporting period was 6.7 One hundred million yuan , Compared with the same period last year 98.81%, Only account for the total revenue 3.26%.

before , Former JD health CEO Xin Lijun of talked about in an interview ,“ Internet medical companies in China , Those who don't sell lose money .”

The meaning behind this sentence is , I know “ Medical services ” It is the core of the company's long-term sustainable development , But for the platform , Still can only rely on “ Selling medicine ” Business to do the scale of the helpless move .

Internet medicine needs to be rebuilt

1994 year , Professor of Yale University William Kissick I was in 《 The medical dilemma ： Unlimited demand and limited resources 》 in , Put forward the famous Impossible Triangle of the traditional medical system , The basic idea is ：

Under given constraints , It is difficult for a country's medical system to take into account both “ Improve the quality of medical services 、 Increase the accessibility of medical services and reduce the price of medical services ”.

This is indeed in line with China's existing medical environment . data display , stay 2016 year , There are 2232 It's a tertiary hospital , The proportion of quantity is only 7.7%, However, the number of outpatient services received by tertiary hospitals throughout the year 16.3 Million people , Proportion is as high as 49.8%.

Data show that , The public wants to go to big hospitals for medical treatment , Those grass-roots medical institutions have a low number of visits , It confirms that there is a shortage of high-quality medical resources in the domestic medical environment 、 Uneven geographical distribution , namely “ Medical treatment is impossible ”.

At the time , Internet medicine can make use of the Internet 、AI Technology complements and optimizes the traditional medical system , It is considered to solve medical problems “ Impossible Triangle ” The great power of . With this layer of concept gilding , With the help of epidemic situation and Policy , The Internet Medical track is highly sought after by the market .

At the height of the concept , The Internet Medical brand represented by large Internet enterprises has become the standard configuration , Alibaba 、 JD.COM 、 Baidu 、 tencent 、 Meituan , Well quickly , Spell many, etc , All rely on traffic 、 ecology 、 The financial advantage has expanded strongly in the medical field .

Now , First, the epidemic factors have faded , Then in the actual experience , More and more people in the industry find , Internet medical distance cracking under marketization “ Impossible Triangle ” And more and more distant , On the contrary, it has created a lot of chaos . Disenchantment , The policy also began to change direction .

Prior to 2020 end of the year ,「 Knowledge of science and technology 」 Have made predictions , Looking back at the development history of Internet medicine , Policy plays a decisive role . As an emerging industry , Therefore, it is not ruled out that the follow-up of follow-up policies will lead to the cold of the internet medical industry .

At this stage , Obviously, the regulation of the internet medical industry is being tightened . in fact , Except for recent 《 Solicitation draft 》 Outside , Recently, the National Health Commission and the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine also jointly issued 《 Detailed rules for the supervision of Internet diagnosis and treatment （ On a trial basis ）》（ Hereinafter referred to as 《 Detailed rules for the 》）.

And this triggered a heated debate 《 Solicitation draft 》 comparison ,《 Detailed rules for the 》 It will have a more direct impact on the business level of Alibaba health , That is, more deadly .

Let's take a simple example ,《 Detailed rules for the 》 It is clear that it is necessary to follow 《 Prescription management method 》 To supervise , It is strictly forbidden to supplement the party, unify the party and AI Automatically generate prescriptions .

system ⽅ It means to treat the doctor ⽣⽤ Drug information into ⾏ Statistics , For pharmaceutical marketing ⼈ member , To allow them to issue drug rebates ⾏ by ; repair ⽅ It means to buy medicine first 、 Afterfilling ⽅;AI Automatic generation of prescription means that the prescription should be issued by the receiving doctor himself , It is forbidden to use artificial intelligence to automatically generate prescriptions .

The above three situations , They are all in the online consultation ecology “ To nourish a doctor with medicine ” The gray areas of the world .

before , because “ Selling medicine ” Is the main business , Therefore, the medical consultation service has degenerated into a diversion tool , This is a common phenomenon in the industry . And with the 《 Detailed rules for the 》 The implementation of , This means that the cost of the existing internet medical platform will be greatly increased , This will affect the profit level of the platform .

This is only a microcosm of strict supervision , It is also a sign of the reconstruction of the internet medical sector . All these above , All of them confirm that sentence “ Time comes and the world goes together , Heroes are not free ”.

@ Knowledge of science and technology   original  

Author zhangdao    Edit page  

Reference material ：

Cai Xin 《 Why does Internet medicine still rely on selling drugs ？ Why can't empowering traditional hospitals get through ？》

The daily economic news 《 The third-party network platform cannot sell drugs ？ What is the truth 》

Bureau of health and knowledge 《 Pharmaceutical e-commerce people ： There has long been no third-party direct online drug sales , The policy has been misinterpreted 》