Encryption crash, is there a future for Web3 games? In depth discussion of 5 papers

This is the second stage of the vernacular blockchain 1675 It's original  
author | Vader Research
Produce ｜ Vernacular blockchain （ID：hellobtc）

According to the latest DappRadar and BGA Games The report ,4 Blockchain game activity hit a record high in January . game dapp Attracted more than 120 Million new active wallets . In spite of the market downturn ,5 There are still... Every day in the month 222 Ten thousand independent active wallets （UAW） Connect to blockchain dapp, And 4 The month is compared with , fell 5%, But still more than 2021 year 5 The moon is higher than the moon 32%.

Some people think that the recent collapse of cryptocurrency market will help eliminate unqualified market participants , This may also reduce market speculation , Let encrypted users focus on the long-term value of the project .

So in Web3 How will the game develop in the future ？ Today, let's have a look with vernacular Vader Research Previously sorted 5 piece Web3 Game related papers overview compilation ：

 01 
Paper 1 ： Look ahead Web2 Developed by game developers Web3 game

Game making is not a simple job , It is even more difficult for the game to go from release to success , Otherwise, how can thousands of games go silent every year ！ For a long time , Although the industry has been very popular , But always By The criticism is that it is not scalable and difficult to make venture capital . Because the mobile game technology can be transferred , Design can transfer the know-how of popular game development , This has greatly changed the development of the industry .

But the current web3 The wave of game development is not designed for traditional gamers seeking fun , It is designed for cryptocurrency and gold panning researchers seeking Ponzi schemes . from the beginning , We expressed our right Axie Infinity Concerns about the sustainability of the profit model .P2E It is a game pyramid project around complex token Economics , all P2E The game is bound to collapse , Just like every algorithmic stable currency with insufficient mortgage will collapse .

Every game economy has cash inflows and outflows . actually , Any game should be sustainable , Cash inflows must exceed outflows . The inflow of a sustainable game economy should come from those sinking markets （ cosmetics 、VIP passageway ） Players who spend money on entertainment and don't expect financial returns .

P2E The problem with the model is , Players spend money on these games , But the expectation is 30 Double their money in a day . These inflows are what we call inflation sinks . Although they provide a short-term cash flow boost for the game economy , But at the cost of larger long-term economic problems .

therefore , The real solution is to build an interesting game , This game has an addictive core loop mode 、 Beautiful visual effects . Wonderful story lines and vibrant social elements , To conquer the traditional game players to spend money on virtual items without any expectation of financial return . as everyone knows , Gamers usually spend money on virtual items to meet their emotional needs .



It is very challenging to design such an addictive game , It usually takes years to complete . We think , Traditional game developers master the knowledge background of cryptocurrency with the help of experienced consultants , It is easier to develop and design games than the original founder of encryption .

Because traditional gamers don't care NFT、 Decentralization or ownership . What they want is interesting games 、 Exciting gaming experience . and Web3 Gaming Those traditional gamers who need to attract through interesting games and smooth entry experience .

therefore , We prefer experienced web2 Developed by game developers web3 game .

 02 
The paper 2： game NFT Will become 1000 A financial market worth more than $billion

Due to the ownership distribution mode of blockchain , majority web3 The game will have a more open economy , In game assets can be traded on the secondary market without permission . Traditional game virtual objects are a value 500 Billion dollar industry —— This figure mainly includes primary sales , Because the trade of second level game items is usually prohibited . stay 2015 year , The total black market value of second-hand game commodities is estimated to be 50 Billion dollars .

With the integration of traditional games web3 Pattern , added web3 The game was played , Millions of unique Games NFT It also came into being . so far , There are more than 1200 Ten thousand unique Axie NFT. We believe that web3 The growth of the game will lead to NFT The cumulative size of the secondary financial market exceeds that of some financial markets .



With every other complex financial market （ Stocks 、 bond 、 goods ） equally , Games NFT The financial market will reach a certain scale , It will also attract suppliers to solve some complex problems for the people , Such as asset management companies 、 Hedge funds 、 Radical investors 、 Quantitative traders 、 Passive index 、 Derivatives brokers 、 Guild broker 、 structured NFT Credit 、 M & A consultants, etc .

We believe that traditional games tend to web3 Integration of games will accelerate the growth of the whole industry , and web3 The open economic constitution of the game will attract more speculators and financial capital , It is expected that the game NFT The market scale has increased to 1000 Over US $100 million .

 03 
The paper 3： Every Web3 The game will have the governor of the central bank

Every Web3 The game is an independent country with open economy . Players are citizens , Speculators are foreign investors , The gold diggers are migrant workers , The game developers are the government and the central bank .

In the real world economy , There is a trade-off between economic growth and development sustainability —— It is usually the government that focuses on short-term growth to win elections , The central bank focuses on sustainable development to achieve long-term sustainable economy . In order to achieve these two goals at the same time , For productivity and efficiency （ Better technology 、 Lower cost 、 Higher production ）, Economies will try to do both .

Virtual world economies have different priorities —— The first is to attract 、 Keep players and monetize them , Then maximize the long-term value of the game franchise . The impact of economic sustainability on player behavior is equally important . Virtual economists do not need to solve problems such as poverty or unemployment . in other words , Having a sustainable virtual economy is important to ensure long-term player retention . The inefficiency of the virtual world is a feature , Not a mistake .



Web3 The game economy has a challenging problem that we haven't completely faced before , That's it , There will be multiple user groups in the unlicensed secondary market （ Game player 、 speculator 、 Jinnong ） Open virtual economy , Because of lack of supervision , There will be many problems . Such as Runescape、EVE、 World of Warcraft, etc Web2 MMO To some extent, it faces similar challenges , But so far , There is no secondary market that can realize the problem of no license and no friction and conflict .

While maintaining the balanced growth of sustainable open game economy , Retention and monetization will be web3 The continuing challenges facing game virtual economists , Because free market arbitrageurs will continue to look for inefficient substitutes . Game economy management is also through Token/NFT An important channel for motivating users .

therefore , Every web3 The game will have an internal or external central bank governor .

 04 
The paper 4： Ponzi scheme will slow down Web3 The development of the game

Stepn、Luna、Thetan Arena、DeFi Kingdoms and Pegaxy And other projects use complex token economics to cover up their Ponzi economic nature , contrast web2 In terms of the game , This will enable web3 Games are years behind in getting real gamers .

The influencers and venture capitalists of these projects are marketing in the form of safe or non Ponzi schemes , But at the expense of the credit value of cryptocurrency . Although some users are aware of the Ponzi scheme and enjoy gambling , But most users are unwitting retail investors , Most of them eventually lost their savings .



The negative publicity and public praise surrounding the collapse of these projects usually lead traditional game players and game developers to believe that web3 Games and NFT It's just an unregulated Ponzi scheme . But Web3 The development of the game needs the traditional game players , Their participation makes it possible to develop games by experienced game developers  web3 The game is more interesting 、 valuable .

Interesting games don't need 5000% Of APY Ponzi scheme to build and develop a group of players . These incentives attract hiring investors or gold miners , Once another similar project offers a more attractive return , They will lose immediately . Early games dominated by mercenary users may prevent traditional gamers from participating . These projects constantly need new funds to maintain the sustainable development of the economy , Eventually we will face the inevitable death spiral .

If you use Ponzi economics properly , As long as it is not abused , It can be a very effective tool to cold start and expand the network effect . The rule of thumb for understanding whether games have unsustainable Ponzi economics is to look at ROI (Return On Investment： Return on investment ). If your payback period is less than 120 God , That is a typical Ponzi scheme —— The faster the payback period , The less sustainable the economy is .

We are Axie Infinity、Pegaxy、Thetan Arena、Crabada And many others web3 The game establishes a detailed financial model , Forecast the economic outlook by applying various simulations and stress tests . We also 2021 year 8 In the month Axie Infinity The unsustainability of the economy of .

Ponzi schemes will slow down web3 The adoption of the game . therefore , We will only work with teams that want to establish long-term game franchises , And will not offer any advice on designing unsustainable Ponzi Economics .

“ Shipbuilding is best left to those who are not involved in the intentional design and marketing of the Titanic ”

 05 
The paper 5： To 2030 year Web3 The game will employ 1 More than 100 million players

Axie Infinity Help exceeds 300 Million players earn income by playing video games . Even if its economy is not sustainable —— Game developers share revenue with players , The idea that this can attract more whales to consume is also a win-win case . As we see more sustainable web3 game , We believe that researchers / Community scholars will be in 2030 Annual growth and reach 1 More than hundred million .

web3 The open economy of the game economy will enable players to exchange their time for money in the game , In these games , Big money players / Whales are happy to pay for certain operations performed by others . As long as the people who don't spend money make the people who spend money feel good , People who spend money will continue to spend money , The game economy will be sustainable . The main inspiration of this paper comes from Castronova Of Players For Hire white paper , This white paper is a must read for those who want to know more about the subject .

“ The existence of other people is very valuable for big consumers , There are several reasons ： Richer than others 、 More powerful pleasure , Yes and , And the simple pleasure of being with you . Whatever the reason , Companies that have the ability to open their doors to anyone , Big money consumers will also be willing to pay the company more money .” （ Castronova ）

The automation of low skilled jobs will make more low skilled workers unemployed , And lead to wider income inequality . This may lead the rich to spend more time on entertainment , Because boredom will be their biggest problem . therefore , They may spend more time and money on the game .



On the other hand , The poor will have difficulty finding jobs in low skilled jobs . For the poor , Games will be a good sideline choice , Because they do not necessarily need to have strong employment competitiveness . It is very likely that a single wage income will not be enough to cover the full cost of living , But games will become a meaningful sideline income . Competitive players may be able to make a living playing video games , But non competitive players may not be able to fully cover their living expenses , And regard video game revenue as a kind of subsidiary revenue .

“ Psychologically and socially , Only second-class cabins exist can first-class cabins exist . therefore , The comparative roles of all free agents are only the second category . Their job is to sit in the second class cabin accurately , Let first-class passengers get on first 、 Eat better food and have more space .” （ Castronova ）

“ In the hiring game , Everyone is still a hero . But some of them will pay a lot of real money to become a really great hero , Others will get a very small amount of real money to be a pretty good hero .” （ Castronova ）

In the dystopian Web3 in , Government and private advertising will use their daily income in exchange for specific labor , This will gradually become the basic income of the public . therefore , We believe that 2030 year web3 The game will employ more than 1 Billion researchers .

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The original title ：5 Theses on Web3 Gaming
Link to the original text ：https://defivader.medium.com/5-theses-on-web3-gaming-b0ea86b8f613
author ：Vader Research
compile ： Fire

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『 Statement ： This article is the author's independent opinion , It does not represent the position of vernacular blockchain , This content is only for the majority of encryption enthusiasts to learn and exchange science , It does not constitute an investment opinion or suggestion , Please look at it rationally , Set up the right idea , Improve risk awareness . The copyright and final interpretation right of the article belong to the vernacular blockchain .』

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